The Numbers: What they are and how to use them
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The unique numbers produced by the program for each running line will be displayed in the following format after the regular Past Performance information: 114 112 78 109| 106
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Race Pace Figure The first number
displayed (114 here) is the Pace Figure for
the race leader. It indicates how fast
the leader reached
the pace call. It is on a Beyer scale. Figures can
range
from the 130s (extremely fast paced G1 stakes race) to near zero or
below at bottom level tracks for very cheap horses. For races
less than one mile in distance, the pace call is the 4 furlong
mark. For races at 1 mile to 1 mile 3/16s, the pace call is
at
the 6 furlong mark. For races at 1 mile 1/4, the pace call is
at
the 1 mile mark. I will be changing that to the 6f mark next
year, and will also start having pace numbers for 1 mile 3/8 and 1 mile
1/2 races at that time.
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Race Speed Figure The second number
displayed (112) is the Speed Figure for the race
winner. It is on the same scale as the Beyer speed
figures as
are all the numbers.
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Horse Pace Figure The third number
displayed (78) is the Pace Figure for the
horse in question ran in the race. The number is
the pace
figure of the race leader minus a deduction for the lengths behind of
the horse. This horse was obviously well off the pace of the
leader. The time of the pace call is converted to a velocity
rating, and the horse is adjusted at a rate of 8 feet per length behind
to calculate the figure.
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Horse Speed Figure The fourth
number
displayed (109) is the Speed Figure for the
horse in question in the race. This is the speed
figure of
the race winner, minus a deduction for the lengths beaten at the
finish. For this rating, the time of the horse's last
fraction is
converted to a velocity rating, and a deduction of 8 feet per length is
applied.
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| Late Pace Figure
The fifth number in the display (this is optional in the program version) is a figure emphasizing late speed. It is the same number I use as the overall performance figure for turf races in many case. A figure is calculated for the last fraction for each horse, and it is then averaged with the pace figure of the horse. Since the last fraction is never 50% of the race, it is obvious the figure will emphasize late speed without rewarding true plodders.
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Performance Figure The fifth and final number displayed (106) is the overall Performance Rating for the horse. This is by far the most important number in the array, and is explained in more detail below. |
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Here is a synopsis of how to best utilize the numbers when handicapping a race and a particular horse's performance. Race Shape First, take note of the race shape. Race shape is simply the relationship of the race pace figure to the race speed figure. The shape is 114-112 in this case, or a +2. I look for races with a race shape of -10 or below, or +10 and above, as being slow or fast to the pace call. Any race shape at -10 or below would be considered a slow pace and hinder the chances of off pace type runners. A race with a race shape of +10 or above would be considered a fast pace and enhance the chances of the off pace type runners.. The important thing to keep in mind is that in a slow paced race, ALL of the horses will probably record lower than usual Performance Ratings, especially the closers in the race. I have not found a reliable way to factor this into the Performance Rating, I just make a note that the horse may be capable of better given a more advantageous pace scenario. The best way to determine this is by looking farther back in the running lines. If the race shape is fast, I will not upgrade the chances of frontrunners and pressers from the race. The "upgrade" is already built into the Performance Rating with the fast pace figure. I will note that off the pace type runners have probably received the best trip they are likely to get, and realize the overall rating is probably about as good as you will see from that particular horse. The Performance Figure Once any extreme
race shapes have been noted, I concentrate on
the Performance Rating. This is the single best gauge of the
horse's ability, and also will give a good indication of where the
horse is in regards to a Form Cycle. This should be the main
focus of the handicapper when looking at any running line in the past
performances. The performance figure incorporates the horse's
pace figure, speed figure, running style, weight carried, and an
adjustment for maturation into one number. It is a very good
measure of how a horse performed on a particular day. It does
not
attempt to incorporate any trip adjustments, such as wide trips, poor
breaks, or steadied or blocked trips. Those should be
considered
by the handicapper along with the figure earned.
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