Saturday Races
| Marathon Eldaafer hasn't returned to the form he displayed last year, so I dont' see a repeat. None of these horses jump out at me, but Pleasant Prince appears to be rounding back to his best numbers and I'll play him at a big price. |
| Juvenile Turf This one is a real crapshoot with a big mix of Euro shippers and North American horses. The top figure horse has never been beyond 6f in nine career attempts. It is good to see they still actually race horses overseas. I'm betting the Aidan O'Brien trained Wrote who is improving and adds Lasix here. |
| Sprint The two morning line favorites have question marks. Big Drama, last years winner, has had issues all year and comes into this race off yet another missed start. There is no way I could take a short price on him. Jackson Bend has not run this short in over two years. He is 2 for 2 at the distance, but they were in 2009 in ungraded stakes as a 2yo. He certainly has run well this year, and had a big effort when the pace dynamics were against him in the Kelso last out. He is the best horse in the race, but it may be a little short for him. I think he is the most likely winner. The other I would consider is Giant Ryan. Back in March I thought Beyer blew one of his figures by about 10 points. I've been following the horse and betting him ever since, so there is no way I won't have a few dollars on him if he wins the Breeder's Cup. The only other horse that interested me was Euroears, but I really think he prefers synthetics. He has run some good races on dirt, but barring an inside speed favoring track, I think he is an underlay. |
| Turf Sprint Very tough race as always. It is once again 5f this year, the sprint of sprints, but didn't draw any killers. In a very evenly matched race, you have to play a price. For me that horse will be Perfect Officer. He draws nicely, has good tactical speed, and should get a nice set up. |
| Dirt Mile Any time the horse I have with the fastest last figure is going to be a huge longshot, I bet him, no questions asked. It didn't work out last year with Mad Flatter, but it is a very profitable angle for me. So, that said, I will be betting Tres Borrachos. I've caught this horse a few times before at a price because he is always ignored in the betting. The other horse I would consider is Caleb's Posse. He was tried in the Indiana Derby last out, but I think he clearly prefers one turn races. A mile might be pushing his limits, but he'll will almost certainly have plenty of pace in front of him. Don't forget, this horse beat the morning line favorite in the Classic only two races ago. |
| Turf I will be shocked if a European shipper doesn't win here. They are all close on form, but I'll go with St Nicholas Abbey to spring the mild upset. |
| Juvenile Union Rags looks tough on the numbers, and I don't have any knocks on him. If he is to be upset, some horse will have to step it up big time. The Euro shipper Crusade could if he takes to dirt, and his breeding suggests that is at least a possibility. Drill was rated behind an insanely slow pace in the Norfolk to the dismay of his trainer Bob Baffert. He is certainly better than his 80 figure that day and is the horse I think has the best chance to beat the chalk. A lot are on the Hansen bandwagon. He won impressively in his last, is two for two lifetime, but sure didn't look like a horse that wants to rate last out. That is a recipe for disaster in a G1 route, even for two year olds. |
| Mile Goldikova is the big story here going for her 4th win in a row in the Mile. She is the reason this is the penultimate race of the day and not in its usual spot. Certainly she can win, and if I don't cash I hope it is her that beats me, but I'm not betting her. As usual, I don't see any of the North American horses beating her. They are just a cut below. That leaves Byword and Strong Suit. Byword does not get Lasix, and prefers a bit longer. I think he'll have trouble keeping up. Strong Suit gets Lasix, and shows success at shorter distances. That is something that has proven a key to success for Euro shippers in the past, so he will be my bet. |
| Classic This is one of those times I will completely ignore the top figure horse. Uncle Mo draws outside, but that isn't much of a disadvantage at this distance. What is a disadvantage is he has only raced 15 furlongs since April 9th, and of those the first 6 in the Kelso were more like a canter. He is the most talented horse possibly, but I don't see how he can be ready for this. I'm also ignoring the Euro shipper So You Think. The horse looks and runs like a turf horse. If he beats me, oh well. There are only a few I can see winning. Those are Flat Out, Havre de Grace, and Stay Thirsty. Game on Dude ran a good number last time, but I don't think he is a 10f horse. Flat Out and Havre de Grace have certainly been very good lately, and if either wins they are probably Horse of the Year. But, my money will be on Stay Thirsty. I think he had a hidden tough trip last time, getting shuffled when the entry pinned him in, and is more of a grinder. He probably isn't the best horse, but he is right there and offers value. |
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