Distaff

1 Balance 20-1

I always bet against this horse and usually she responds with an underwhelming effort.  I expect the same today, and I think she'll be shorter than the ML odds.

2 Prop Me Up 50-1

Will be an underlay if the 50 to 1 ML holds, and she'll probably be shorter.

3 Tough Tiz's Sis 20-1

Needs a slow pace to compete.  Honest sort runs the same overall figure nearly every time, but needs a slowish pace to be there late.

4 Ginger Punch 7-2

A string of cupcake wins while running in slow paced races inflated this one's reputation.  She actually ran a bigger number in defeat last time.  I don't want any parts of her in here.

5 Lady Joanne 6-1

Big number winning the Alabama at Saratoga while rating a length off the pace early.  Nafzger clearly used the Spinster as a prep, and I expect big things from her in this race.

6 Bear Now 15-1

Speedy sort will get a few calls early, but unless the other speeds fall asleep, she won't be a factor at the end.

7 Lear's Princess 6-1

Narrowly missed in the aforementioned Alabama.  That race is a furlong longer, and the pace gave her a dream setup.  She'll have to work harder and sooner to get there here.  A shot, but I prefer her Saratoga nemesis.

8 Octave 10-1

A grinder that always gives a solid effort.  It is tough, however, for me to envision any scenario that puts her in the winner's circle.

9 Teammate 30-1

Her last two running lines might lead one to believe she is back in form, but the figures tell you she is simply not the same horse she was last year.  I wouldn't bet her at 300 to 1 in this race.

Had a nice trip last time and was still nailed late by the next horse, Unbridled Belle.  That horse alone has beaten her the last three times, so I have a little trouble understanding the tag as ML favorite.  She'll be there turning for home, but that is probably about it.

11 Unbridled Belle 9-2

The pace was against her last time, she had some slight trouble with traffic, and still got up to win.  She is the main danger to Lady Joanne.

12 Hystericalady 8-1

A tough horse to knock.  I loved this horse on Derby day as some may remember.  However, she is in a tough spot here.  The post is a big concern as she must secure a decent position before the turn.  Even so, she hasn't really had to run fast early and late, something that will be required here, and the distance is a question mark as well.

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