Dirt Mile

1 Discreet Cat 2-1

Very talented horse, but his last two have been the first two defeats of his career.  I can't imagine the plan this year was to run in this race.  That said, all reports are he looks great this week and his last race still puts him right there in the mix.  Hard horse to like, but hard horse to bet against in this group.

2 Lewis Michael 6-1

Versatile horse has won on dirt, turf, and polytrack.  Still, his best is a tad slow for this group.  Probably an underlay if near his 6 to 1 ML.

3 Wanderin Boy 8-1

Consistent horse is tough to judge in this field.  He has been running longer distances and making the lead, but could have a tough time doing that today with Gottcha Gold gunning from the outside.

4 Forefathers 20-1

Interesting horse in that he does show a few big figures, including his last in the Jerome.  He made a nice move into a hot pace before flattening out.  Might be worth a shot at a big price...if the connections choose this race over the sprint, which they should.

5 High Finance 5-1

Ran a huge race in a one turn mile at Belmont three back, but the last was highly disappointing.  I'm never a big fan of horses trying to rebound from a bad race in top class competition.

6 Gottcha Gold 8-1

Very, very fast horse early and have some impressive wins.  He won the Iselin after beating Classic contender Lawyer Ron in the Iselin prep race, the Doug Salvatore mile.  His biggest problem here might be steady, long term pressure from Wanderin Boy.  The 2+ layoff is also a concern for me. 

7 Park Avenue Ball 15-1

Shows a lot of wins at Monmouth, and seems to be a wise guy horse in here.  I'm not much of a fan.  He showed little in a very fast race last out, and most of his wins at Monmouth were against weak competition.

8 Corinthian 7-2

Is 2 for 2 at one mile (despite DRF listing him as 0 for 0 at the distance) and won the biggest mile race in the country, the Met.  His last two at longer distances don't look good on paper, but one was at 10 furlongs, and the other is sneaky good effort against Lawyer Ron.  I think he is the most likely winner.

9 Xchanger 6-1

Another some people seem to like, but I do not.  He could certainly suck up for a share, but he looks too slow to me to get the win.

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