Mile

1 Ad Valorem 20-1

Maybe he can just ride the rail to an exotic finish, but that is about his only hope. He has always been a cut below the top, and seems to have lost a few steps late this year.

2 Silent Name 20-1

Comes in with some very big, and consistent, figures. His ride in the last was brutal. How you wind up on the outside fence after starting from the rail is beyond me. The concern is the horse lacks any early speed to maintain position. I don't think that is the case, and am willing to give him a shot here assuming the last was just prep for today. Look for him to be more involved early and to be coming late.

3 Araafa 9-2

The horse looks very strong, and gets first lasix. He is top class and will be tough to deny here if he takes to US racing.

4 Sleeping Indian 20-1

The Europeans like this horse. Ignore his line two back as he was hopelessly blocked for most of the stretch. A chance at a price.

5 Free Thinking 15-1

Are you kidding me? I wouldn't bet this horse at 300-1. I hope the owners got the seats they must have needed to enter this guy. (No, I didn't forget to change the comment from the sprint)

6 Echo of Light 10-1

Good figures and first lasix, though earned against the lesser class Euros. Still, anyone notice one always seems to slip under the European radar?

7 Aragorn 30-1

Horse has been winning...a lot. I don't like the dip in his numbers this summer and fall though. He was basically beating up on overmatched horses in his last two. The question is, did the horse just do what was required, or did his form decline. I tend to believe the former, but I think the price is too short and the competition too steep to wager on that opinion at the expected price.

8 Badge of Silver 12-1

One for one on turf, but it was against a thoroughly forgettable field and was nearly a year ago. It was also his last race. I assume he'll set the pace, or try, but can't see him sticking around long.

9 Rob Roy 15-1

Very nice second in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket last time, besting Hurricane Run while finishing second. He has run decently at a mile, and gets Lasix which could put him right there.

10 Miesque's Approval 10-1

Does show a 110 and 112 in his past 10, including his last. Both were at Kee though, so I think he really likes that surface. He is up against it today, and the post is scary as well.

11 Super Frolic 50-1

I'm not sure why he isn't in the Classic, though I guess he had little chance there either. I've already wasted too many keystrokes on this one.

12 Gorella 4-1

This horse ran very well in last year's mile, and held that form together nicely this year. The post isn't a plus, but shouldn't hurt too much as she'll just drop to the back anyway and make a big late run. I am not a big fan of that big, swooping run in this race. It wouldn't shock me if she won, but I won't bet her.

13 Librettist 6-1

Was a terror in France this summer, and was actually only 3 to 1 against George Washington in his last, who would be the favorite here if he had not opted for the Classic. However, he ran dreadful that day at Ascot, and now notice that Dettori chooses the 6 to ride, and he did have a choice. I'm tossing this one.

14 Aussie Rules 6-1

Another Euro that picked up the juice and elevated his numbers enough to get a nice US win. He did receive a dream trip that day, but now draws far outside. He could win here, but Gomez will need to pull a serious rabbit out of the trip hat.

RECAP:

An unbelievably tough race here. I'll probably end up with Silent Name in flat bets, but in horizontal exotics (p3, p4) I'll be going deep. I would not play vertical exotics here, the race is just too tough for me.