Distaff

1 Round Pond 15-1

Saving the best for first! I really like this horse in this spot. First, the horse has been pointed here all along. After two OP races that were basically paid workouts, she was laid up until late summer. She then returned with a good second in the Molly Pitcher in a negative paced race, then had a tough trip second in the Beldame in a useful tightener. She has my favorite pattern off a layoff, improving figs first two, but still below her best, and anticipate her best today 3^rd off the bench. Stalk and pounce.

2 Pine Island 5-1

Tough 3yo. If she gets a nice, hot pace, she will run well as always. However, she has been beating up on bad 3yos, and probably would prefer an extra furlong. I also think this horse is more likely to be 3-1 than the 5-1 ML. Contender, but underlay.

3 Healthy Addiction 10-1

This mare wins...a lot...but I really think she is up against it today with her running style. She has little choice but to go from the bell, and I think she'll have plenty of company.

4 Sharp Lisa 50-1

I might be able to outrun this horse.

5 Lemons Forever 30-1

Are you kidding me? I wouldn't bet this horse at 300-1. I hope the owners got the seats they must have needed to enter this guy. (No, I didn't forget to change the comment from the sprint or mile)

6 Spun Sugar 10-1

Ignore the polytrack race, and I am, and this horse is a contender. Still looks a little light to me on the numbers, though a pace factor.

7 Fleet Indian 8-5

Tough to dislike a horse that has won 8 in a row, 6 since the miraculous figure transformation that occurred with a switch to the Pletcher barn. Still, there are some ?s here. Her figures aren't dominant, and I don't really want even money in that situation. Certainly no surprise if she wins in a canter.

8 Baghdaria 30-1

This is not Hoosier or Prairie Meadows here. No shot.

9 Pool Land 10-1

This frontrunner should press early, but it is tough to imagine her getting the easy lead necessary to win this race. Way too much speed in here for that to happen.

10 Hollywood Story 10-1

Appears a bit long in the tooth lately. She rarely ever wins when in her best form, so out she goes.

11 Bushfire 30-1

This horse was very good to PaceFigures users this year, but appears in a bit deep here. The post and running style are a big problem.

12 Asi Siempre 15-1

This turf runner did win the Spinster on polytrack last time, but the Keeneland style was much nearer to turf than dirt anyway. Slim to no prospects, emphasis on none.

13 Happy Ticket 12-1

Horse did a lot of winning as a 3 and 4 yo, and is very consistent again this year. However, she appears a little too slow. Further, her running style makes it tough to envision anything less than being four wide around the first turn, which is never a good thing.

14 Balletto 6-1

In my opinion, another big underlay. The horse rarely wins, draws a bad post, and most importantly had every reason to win last time and still couldn't do it. Bet at your own risk, she disappoints too often for me.

RECAP:

Another tough race, as to be expected on Breeder's Cup day. I think the big overlay will be Round Pond, and will bet accordingly.