Classic

1 Brother Derek 30-1

I'm going to start with the assumption it will take a 115 to win this race, which leaves Derek out. He has had some tough trips lately, but even his best when adjusted for maturation fall short.

2 Premium Tap 30-1

Throw out the last on polytrack, especially since the ride was so bad it was comical unless you bet the horse. Still falls short of a win, but maybe in the underside of exotics.

3 Bernardini 1-1

For the third year in a row, I see a favorite that will be very tough to deny. However, this one won't be bettable. I may try some vertical exotics with him, but won't spend money trying to beat him.

4 George Washington 10-1

Nothing about his horse says dirt, and nothing says 1 mile and a 1/4. They are just taking a shot, but I don't think he has much of one.

5 Lawyer Ron 20-1

Of all the horses in here, this is the one that could possibly pressure Bernardini and make him work. However, he is usually very rank and is highly unlikely to go 10f.

6 Perfect Drift 20-1

Would love to own him, hate to bet him. He never wins anymore, even when he should, and here he shouldn't.

7 David Junior 8-5

Good luck to them trying to win the toughest dirt race in the world with no dirt experience and a 4 month layoff.

8 Lava Man 6-1

He has done things that will not be repeated anytime soon. He swept the Big Cap, Hollywood GC, and Pacific Classic, won a G1 on the turf, and the $1,000,000 Sunshine Millions, all in the same year. However, I give him little shot of even a 1-2-3 finish. His style will get him in trouble here, as I think he is a bit overmatched. Lawyer Ron is very tough for awhile, and Bernardini will take over. I just can't see this horse sticking around, especially when you look at his races outside of California without Bute.

9 Giacomo 30-1

Returns to the scene of the crime, and him winning Derby was a crime in my opinion. Still, he got to the wire first, and that has to count for something. I could easlily see this horse finishing as high as second here, and the price is inviting.

10 Flower Alley 30-1

Last year's runner up in the Classic, and Travers winner, has been nothing short of dreadful this year. He has been reportedly working in a bar shoe also, which is not good. If he hits the board, I lose.

11 Invasor 5-1

He appears a cut below the favorite figure wise, and missing the JCGC due to illness has to be a negative. I still think he can be in the mix late as he is a very gritty sort that can lead or stalk. Not my favorite, but not a dismissal from exotics either.

12 Suave 30-1

Appears a cut below, and his running style of near the front is not ideal here.

13 Sun King 15-1

Has reinvented himself into a closer this year, which is good and bad. The good is, he is running better and coming close, but the bad news is he never wins and seems to hang like a rat. I am very doubtful about his ability to get 10f, especially against a group this good. I'll use him in exotics, but lightly.

RECAP:

I won't go crazy here, but maybe play vertical exotics with Bernardini over and assortment of Premium Tap, Giacomo, Invasor, and Sun King.