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Sprint
1: Bwana Charlie - Regressing off of already slow numbers, no way in hell! 2: Speightstown - Ran a clunker last out in what was hopefully a prep. Not the kind of horse I want to bet as a favorite. He wouldn't shock me, but a major underlay. 3: Champali - Very solid horse, but I'm actually thinking he'll take a step backward here. A 107 set him back quite a bit last year, and now that he finally topped that 107, I have to think that may also set him back as well. He had a similiar setback after setting a career best before the Iowa Derby, though that isn't in the PPs anymore. 4: Our New Recruit - Dubai figure is suspect, coming on a straightaway. Other races are too slow for this, I'll confidently toss him out. 5: Kela - I give this horse a big shot. At first glance, his 102 in his 6f race looks like the distance is too short for him. However, the race had a shape of 108-109, not the type of shape that usually allows a closer to get up from dead last early on. This is the worst sprint I've ever seen figure wise, and I see no reason this guy can't mow this crew down. Note the 3d place finisher in his last race! 6: Abbondanza - Philly shipper ran a nice raw time, but the figures tell a different story. He race about the same as he always does, which is not fast enough to win one of the few G1 sprints in this country. 7: Clock Stopper - Always finds a way to lose, will probably be over bet, and will probably find his way into the trifecta. I just won't use him in the top slot. If it comes down to a closer getting up, I'll take Kela over him every time. 8: PT's Grey Eagle - Win in Ancient Title is more a statement of the sad state of affairs of SoCal racing than it is of this guys ability. Just looks too slow, even for this weak edition of the Sprint. 9: Gold Storm - The 113 last out jumps out, but I'm dismissing it. Keeneland figures are notoriously unreliable for frontrunners, and given that this horse had never run above 103 in the past, I'm VERY skeptical. I'll throw him in P3s just in case, but I think he's nothing more than a pace setter. 10: Cuvee - Done nothing but go downhill since his Saratoga Special, and I see no reason for a rebound here. 11: Cajun Beat - Those who know me know that I LOVED this horse last year. That said, I just don't see it this year. He has run four uninspiring races since last year's win. That win, and Frankel, will ensure he is an underlay this year. No thanks. 12: My Cousin Matt - Not sure why he's here, though first time Mullins on dirt will have him on a P3 ticket for me. 13: Midas Eyes - Very overrated horse. 7-2 ML makes him an immediate toss for me. Bad post and only so so figures just don't give me hope for him finding the winner's circle. Selections: My initial thoughts were that I didn't really like this race. But after a thorough perusal of the PPs, I really like Kela. The field is not strong, the pace should be decent, and he should get a good trip. In P3s I might also use Gold Storm, My Cousin Matt, and Speightstown. |