Classic

1:  Ghostzapper - For a figure guy like myself, this is one tough horse to overlook.  He's done everything right, and I don't really see any reason he won't be able to get 10f.  If Frankel horses are running as bad as they did last year, I'll reevaluate this horse, but for now, the race goes through him.

2:  Freefourinternet - Three dirt figures in his PPs show 96, 101, 98...no shot.

3:  Azeri - Another mismanagement job by the connections.  Why not try her going 2 miles on the sod in Australia next?  That would be about a ridiculous a spot as this one is. 

4:  Perfect Drift - Horse has forgotten how to win, and seems to be declining.  No way this horse at his best should ever lose to Freefourinternet.  Easy toss for me.

5:  Fantasticat - Dream trip in last behind a brutal pace, no way I could back this guy on top.  Maybe he could outstumble Dynever for 3rd or 4th.   (I do like Britt's Jules in the LS Derby today from the same race!)

6:  Roses In May - Ran two huge races this fall, then had a "workout" in his last in the Kentucky Classic.  The horse loves to win, and is probably the main threat to the 1 horse on the front end.

7:  Birdstone - His figure of 110 (already adjusted for maturity) in his last is a notch below what it will take to win here.  A brutal pace battle could help set things up for him, but I think he'll be an underlay against this group.

8:  Personal Rush - I like to think I know a lot of things, but I don't know a darn thing about Japanese racing.  He seems to be having a tough time adapting to the US judging by his behaviour in the mornings this week, and that's enough for me to toss him.

9:  Funny Cide - I've always liked this horse, and was very glad to see him win his last, and not just because he was my pick of the day on this site.  That said, I think he's in trouble here.  The pace scenario just doesn't favor him with real quality pressure that he will face every step of the way.  I think he can hit the board, but it will take a massive effort to win.  I'd like to see it, but I don't think it will happen.

10:  Newfoundland - A pace factor, surprisingly game in his last, but even that effort would find him off the board in this race.  No thanks.

11:  Bowman's Band - I've made a lot of money betting this horse's races...AGAINST him.  No reason stop now.  He seems to be off form anyway, so he won't take much action.

12:  Pleasantly Perfect - Tough to knock him, especially at this distance.  I don't like the layoff, and I don't like that he is at the end of his 6yo season.  He could win, but you have to take a stand somewhere.  I think this post could hurt given his newfound ability to show more speed.

13:  Dynever - I could past Bowman's Band's comments here, they are incredibly similiar.  The difference is, this guy gets bet EVERY time.  His best race was in the Classic last year, though it was a non-threatening third.   I don't see any better from him this year.  BC Turf next year maybe for him?

Selections:  Ghostazapper, Roses in May if not, and those two along with Birdstone in P3s, and maybe Pleasantly Perfect.  Really torn on using him at all.